After months of warming up and campaigning, the time has come on Tuesday: it must then be clear who will live in the White House for the next four years. Will it be Donald Trump or Joe Biden? Most results per state are announced in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday. Ultimately, it is not the candidate with the highest number of votes that wins, but the candidate with the most electoral votes.
How that system works exactly, explains correspondent Arjen van der Horst in this video:
In some states, the safe states, it is certain in advance whether they will go to the Republicans or the Democrats. In those states it will not be very exciting on Tuesday night. It is very different with the so-called swing states, either battleground states. There you have to wait and see how the residents will vote.
This year seven of those swing states are extra interesting to keep an eye on. Firstly, Pennsylvania (20 electors), Wisconsin (10 electors) and Michigan (16 electors). They were always Democratic bastions, but they were conquered by Donald Trump in 2016 with a tiny difference in votes. The big question is whether Biden can let those states ‘color blue’ again on Tuesday, as a Democratic victory is referred to.
In addition, Florida has been regarded as the holy grail of swing states for years: in the past six presidential elections, the candidate who won Florida’s 29 electors also became president.
Ohio (18 electors) has never voted for the same party for long; since 1948, that state has gone to the Democrats seven times and to the Republicans eleven times. While the state was still in Republican hands in 2004, it turned blue in 2008 and 2012 with Barack Obama’s victories, before returning to the Republicans in 2016. Also this year it looks set to be a neck-and-neck race in Ohio.
In addition, it is important to keep an eye on the states of North Carolina and Arizona, with 15 and 11 electors respectively. Four years ago, the electors of both states headed for Trump. But the difference in votes with his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton was small at the time. Both Trump and Biden have campaigned intensively in recent weeks. So the Democrats certainly don’t consider these states lost.
Do you delay the result?
It will take days for all votes to be counted. Yet it is usually clear the morning after election day who won. But this time there is a chance that there is no clear winner yet. According to many, that chance is even life-sized.
For fear of contamination with corona, many Americans do not dare to go to the polling stations on Tuesday. That is why this time an exceptionally large number of people vote by post. Four years ago, a quarter of the votes were cast by mail; this time that share can rise to over 50 percent. Of course, those postal votes must all be counted, and in some cases that can go on for days.
Sometimes this leads to quite bizarre situations. Post votes must be in most states by Nov. 3. But in some states postal votes are allowed up to a week after the election to be counted, including a number of swing states: Pennsylvania (November 6), Iowa (November 9), Nevada and Minnesota (November 10), North Carolina (12 November) and Ohio (November 13). They must have been sent on the day of the elections – which can be seen by the postmark.
Due to the enormous number of postal votes in particular, there may be delays in counting. In many states a fuss is expected about this. Then it will not only be about whether they arrive on time. It will be checked whether the signatures are authentic. Whether the notes have been sent in the correct envelope.
And what to do with postal votes that have arrived, but can no longer be counted on time? Chances are that multiple results will be challenged in the courts. Both parties have therefore already hired an army of lawyers in advance.
Red mirage or blue shift?
Shortly after polling stations are closed, the results can give a distorted picture. In many states, Republicans are ahead of the curve. Only when more votes are counted do the Democrats start catching up. The Americans call this phenomenon the “blue shift” or “red mirage”. The results card first turns red (Republican) but then slowly becomes more blue (Democratic).
It has to do with the fact that Democratic voters in particular vote by post. In some states, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, postal votes come later. The first results will therefore be mainly based on the physical votes, which makes it seem as if the Republicans have a significant lead. Only when the postal votes are included in the standings do the Democrats often catch up more.
The other way around is also possible: in states where postal votes are counted early, such as Florida, Ohio and North Carolina, you have a ‘blue mirage’. Then it looks like the Democrats are winning, but in the end the Republicans can make a comeback.
Opposition to the results
There are many concerns about far-right militias who will perceive any Democratic victory as fraud. That risk is greatest in the swing states of Michigan and Arizona. Especially there such militias have traditionally been active. Civil rights movement NAACP fears people with automatic guns will come to intimidate vote counters.
But leftist activists are also preparing to intervene actively. Called “stopping the coup”, they plan to act quickly if the elections are unfair in their eyes.
Presidential candidates Trump and Biden are in the news all the time, but what else do you need to know about them? Correspondent Arjen van der Horst explains:
TIMELINE
Because these elections are different than usual, it is unpredictable at what time the results will come. Here we give the expectations for the six most important swing states. All times are Dutch times.
Florida
Most polling stations close at 1 a.m., some at 2 a.m. (time difference 6 hours)
Get here at 2am the preliminary results are expected.
At 2:30 am all previously cast votes must be known. That may seem positive for Biden.
North Carolina
Polling stations closed at 1.30 am (time difference 6 hours)
At around 1:30 AM, the previously cast votes and postal votes come, which may seem favorable to Biden.
The votes of the day come between 2:30 a.m. and 7 a.m., likely favorable to Trump.
Arizona
Polling stations closed at 3 a.m. (time difference 8 hours)
The first results around 4 a.m. These are based on the postal votes and are probably beneficial to Biden. Postal votes may be counted in advance.
Wisconsin
Polling stations closed at 3 a.m. (time difference 7 hours)
The state predicts that they will be done counting the night after the election, or the next day.
Michigan
Most polling stations close at 2 a.m., some at 3 a.m. (6 hours time difference)
The state does not expect a result until Friday, November 6, or possibly earlier, when all votes have been counted.
The preliminary results may seem positive for Trump, as post votes are counted late.
Pennsylvania
Polling stations closed at 2 a.m. (time difference 6 hours)
According to the state, it can take days, even the weekend after the election, for all postal votes to be counted.
The preliminary results may seem positive for Trump, as post votes will not be counted until Nov. 3.